Kilian Ekamp, M.Sc.
Born March 26, 1996
+49 170 961 83 85
Cologne, November 2024
Content
2.1 Main Research Question 4
3.1 Uncertainty in Entrepreneurship 6
4.1 Defining Multipreneurship 8
5.1 Primary Objective 12
6.1 Research Approach 13
1. Introduction
In today’s volatile economic landscape, traditional entrepreneurial models focused on single, high-stakes ventures are increasingly challenged by inherent uncertainties and market fluctuations. Entrepreneurs face complex, non-linear dynamics where unpredictable events—what Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes as “Black Swans”—can disproportionately influence success or failure. At the same time, advancements in digital technology have transformed the entrepreneurial landscape, enabling individuals to create and market digital products at minimal cost. Generative AI, no-code platforms, and online communities now empower entrepreneurs to experiment with multiple small-scale ventures, building products rapidly and reaching global audiences with unprecedented ease. Amidst this backdrop, a new breed of entrepreneurs is emerging, adopting an approach centered on diversified, low-cost, and low-risk experiments across multiple projects.
This phenomenon, referred to here as Multipreneurship, is characterized by a portfolio of small bets designed to leverage both technological and strategic advantages to navigate uncertainty, mitigate risk, and increase the chances of achieving outlier successes.
While existing research on digital entrepreneurship (Keyhani et al., 2022; Nambisan, 2017), portfolio entrepreneurship (Carter & Ram, 2003), and micro-entrepreneurship (Bhuiyan & Ivlevs, 2019) has laid an excellent foundation, there is now an opportunity to extend this work by exploring how recent technological advancements, such as generative AI, have expanded the strategic options available to entrepreneurs. These developments have opened new avenues for managing uncertainty through diversified portfolios of small, low-cost experiments that characterize Multipreneurship.
This proposal builds on the framework of Digital Portfolio Micropreneurship (Keyhani, 2022) and introduces Multipreneurship as a distinct entrepreneurial strategy that leverages the unpredictability of modern markets, not only for resilience but also to achieve outlier success.
In this study, I propose to investigate Multipreneurship as a systematic response for managing entrepreneurial uncertainty, informed by theories on risk, decision-making, and the unpredictable nature of markets. The study will also integrate insights from recent research on experimentation and outliers (Jamshidi & Keyhani, 2024) and will employ an experimental case study approach to demonstrate that using multiple small bets not only enables diversification but also increases the likelihood of achieving outlier successes. This approach embodies Multipreneurship as a strategic choice in entrepreneurship. By exploring how Multipreneurs utilize small, incremental bets to manage risk and capitalize on randomness, this research seeks to establish Multipreneurship as a theoretically grounded and practically viable alternative to traditional entrepreneurial models.
2. Research Question
2.1 Main Research Question
This study seeks to answer the question: How can entrepreneurs navigate the inherent uncertainty of their field by adopting strategies that manage risk and foster adaptability and resilience, rather than relying on singular high-stakes ventures?
2.1.1 Key Terms in This Framework
- Risk: In this context, risk refers to the potential for unpredictable losses or failures that could jeopardize a venture’s viability. In volatile markets, risk is amplified by external shocks and factors beyond an entrepreneur’s control. This aligns with Taleb’s concept of “Black Swans”—rare, high-impact events that are difficult to foresee, underscoring the need for strategies that can absorb or adapt to such shocks.
- Risk Management in Multipreneurship: Within the Multipreneurship model, risk management involves strategies that minimize the consequences of any single venture’s failure. Key components include:
- Diversification: By building a portfolio of small, independent projects instead of committing to a single high-stakes venture, entrepreneurs can distribute risk across multiple initiatives. This approach increases the likelihood of overall success, as the portfolio can absorb individual failures without compromising the entrepreneur’s position.
- Low-Cost, Low-Risk Experiments: Multipreneurs conduct small bets or controlled experiments, allowing them to test and validate ideas incrementally. This approach minimizes upfront investment and reduces potential losses, offering a more sustainable path to experimentation.
- Optionality and Flexibility: Ventures are structured to allow for adjustments or pivots based on market feedback, making it easier to adapt or abandon failing initiatives without significant financial or emotional cost. This flexibility enables Multipreneurs to remain agile in uncertain environments.
- Adaptability: Adaptability is the capacity to respond effectively to changing conditions, which is essential in a small-bet or experimental approach. By staying adaptable, entrepreneurs can pivot based on real-time feedback from their ventures, optimizing their strategies as they gain insights from the market.
- Resilience: Resilience is the structural outcome of diversification and low-risk strategies. By spreading resources across multiple ventures, entrepreneurs can withstand shocks without jeopardizing their entire portfolio. This concept aligns with Taleb’s notion of antifragility, where resilience is not merely survival but a foundation for growth and long-term success in volatile markets.
2.2 Sub-Research Questions
To address the main research question, this study will explore the following sub-questions:
- What are the primary sources of uncertainty in entrepreneurship, and how do they impact decision-making and venture outcomes?
- How do non-ergodic processes in entrepreneurship influence risk management, and what role do small-bet strategies play in reducing potential ruin?
- How can entrepreneurs design strategies that actively benefit from uncertainty by aligning personal stakes with venture outcomes and fostering adaptability?
3. Current State of Research
The rapidly evolving landscape of digital technology is giving rise to a new type of entrepreneur, one who leverages digital tools to pursue multiple small-scale ventures rather than a single high-stakes project. This emergent entrepreneurial approach is not yet fully understood in academic research, as it contrasts with traditional models in significant ways. Existing literature on portfolio entrepreneurship (Carter and Ram, 2003) and micro-entrepreneurship Bhuiyan and Ivlevs, 2019) often interprets these strategies as primarily necessity-driven—adopted by individuals seeking economic survival or stability. However, in the world of digital entrepreneurship, we are observing a shift toward opportunity-driven strategies, where entrepreneurs proactively build portfolios of small ventures to explore diverse market opportunities and capitalize on emerging trends. This study aims to address this gap by exploring the phenomenon of Multipreneurship, grounded in Keyhani’s (2022) concept of Digital Portfolio Micropreneurship, as a strategic, opportunity-driven choice in the face of uncertainty.
3.1 Uncertainty in Entrepreneurship
Uncertainty is a defining characteristic of modern entrepreneurship, as entrepreneurs face complex, unpredictable market dynamics that make precise planning and forecasting challenging. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work on risk, randomness, and antifragility provides a foundational lens through which to understand this uncertainty. Taleb emphasizes that we live in an “opaque” world, where our ability to foresee rare, high-impact events—or “Black Swans”—is limited. His work encourages entrepreneurs to adopt probabilistic thinking and to focus on strategies that are resilient to randomness, rather than trying to eliminate risk altogether. This focus on resilience over prediction sets the stage for understanding Multipreneurship as a proactive approach to navigating uncertainty through diversification and adaptability.
3.2 Digital Portfolio Micropreneurship
Keyhani’s work on Digital Portfolio Micropreneurship (2022) serves as a conceptual foundation for the idea of Multipreneurship. Digital Portfolio Micropreneurship integrates elements from digital entrepreneurship, portfolio theory, and micro-entrepreneurship, emphasizing the use of digital tools to create and manage multiple low-cost ventures. Keyhani posits that digital technology allows entrepreneurs to experiment with various small projects at minimal cost, making it feasible to diversify their efforts without significant financial risk. This framework underscores the strategic potential of leveraging digital platforms, automation, and scalable technologies to pursue a portfolio of ventures, thereby spreading risk while maximizing opportunities for outlier successes. Keyhani’s work provides a valuable starting point for examining how Multipreneurs use diversified portfolios as a way to manage risk and capture value in uncertain markets.
3.3 Experimentation and Outliers
Recent studies on experimentation and outliers, such as those by Jamshidi and Keyhani (2024), further illuminate the potential of Multipreneurship as a strategy for achieving resilience and outlier success. These studies highlight the value of pure experimentation—a concept that involves conducting multiple independent trials to increase the likelihood of achieving extraordinary outcomes. This approach is grounded in order statistics and suggests that the probability of encountering outliers improves with the number of independent experiments conducted. In the context of Multipreneurship, entrepreneurs can apply this principle by launching multiple small bets, each with the potential to yield significant returns. Jamshidi and Keyhani’s research on outliers and experimentation reinforces the idea that a portfolio of small ventures can serve as a mechanism for both diversification and the pursuit of high-impact successes, setting the stage for Multipreneurship as an adaptive response to entrepreneurial uncertainty.
4. Theoretical Background
4.1 Defining Multipreneurship
Multipreneurship can be defined as a strategic response to the uncertainties inherent in the entrepreneurial landscape. Unlike traditional models that rely on single, high-stakes ventures, Multipreneurship involves creating a diversified portfolio of small, low-cost ventures. This approach integrates insights from several established theories—digital entrepreneurship, portfolio theory, and micro-entrepreneurship—to offer a comprehensive strategy for navigating uncertainty. Through this diversified, experimental approach, Multipreneurs aim to mitigate risk, foster adaptability, and increase the chances of achieving outlier successes.
4.2 Foundational Theories
4.2.1 Uncertainty and Opacity
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s (2010) work on uncertainty highlights the limitations of human knowledge in predicting events in an inherently “opaque” world. Taleb emphasizes that rare, high-impact events—or “Black Swans”—are largely unforeseeable, challenging the traditional reliance on predictive models. This perspective encourages a shift from predictive certainty to probabilistic thinking, where entrepreneurs focus on strategies that are resilient to randomness. Multipreneurship aligns with Taleb’s framework by leveraging small, adaptable bets that do not depend on perfect foresight but rather embrace the unpredictable nature of markets.
4.2.2 Antifragility
Taleb’s concept of antifragility describes systems that not only withstand shocks but actually grow stronger through volatility (2014). Antifragile systems thrive on disruption, adapting and evolving as they face challenges. In an entrepreneurial context, antifragility implies building ventures that benefit from uncertainty. Multipreneurs embody this principle by conducting small, adaptable experiments that allow them to capitalize on unexpected opportunities. Through iterative learning and adaptation, Multipreneurship transforms volatility into a driver of growth, rather than a threat.
4.2.3 Ergodicity and Risk Management
Ergodicity, as introduced by Ole Peters, emphasizes that in non-ergodic systems—where individual trajectories can lead to ruin—long-term survival depends on conservative risk management and diversification (2019). In Multipreneurship, this principle is applied through “small bets” that limit exposure to catastrophic failures. By distributing risk across multiple ventures, Multipreneurs reduce the impact of any single loss and enhance their chances of long-term survival and success. This aligns with Taleb’s advocacy for diversified strategies that avoid irreversible failures.
4.3 Theories Integrated in Multipreneurship
4.3.1 Digital Entrepreneurship
Digital entrepreneurship is based on the exploitation of opportunities made possible by digital technologies. This model emphasizes low-cost, scalable digital platforms that allow entrepreneurs to launch products, automate processes, and reach global audiences affordably and efficiently (Keyhani et al., 2022). Multipreneurship builds on digital entrepreneurship by utilizing accessible digital tools to launch multiple ventures with minimal investment. Technologies like generative AI and no-code platforms enable entrepreneurs to create and test digital products rapidly, allowing for a small-scale, experimental approach that can be scaled based on market response. Thus, digital entrepreneurship provides Multipreneurs with low-cost entry points and scalable options for portfolio diversification.
4.3.2 Portfolio Theory
Originating in finance, portfolio theory emphasizes risk diversification by spreading investments across different assets, thereby reducing exposure to individual asset risks and stabilizing returns (Carter & Ram, 2003). In an entrepreneurial context, portfolio theory supports the strategic choice to pursue multiple independent ventures. Rather than committing to a single high-stakes project, Multipreneurs diversify their efforts across small bets. This approach mitigates the risk of any one failure impacting overall success and increases the probability that a few ventures will yield substantial returns. Multipreneurship, therefore, adapts the principles of portfolio theory by treating each small venture as a “bet” within a diversified entrepreneurial portfolio.
4.3.3 Micro-Entrepreneurship
Traditionally, micro-entrepreneurship refers to small-scale, often single-person enterprises with limited resources, typically driven by necessity or economic mobility (Bhuiyan & Ivlevs, 2019). Micro-entrepreneurs prioritize low-cost ventures that are manageable and sustainable independently. Multipreneurship aligns with micro-entrepreneurship by focusing on low-cost, manageable ventures. However, it shifts the focus to opportunity-driven rather than purely necessity-driven goals. Multipreneurs strategically engage in small projects to explore market niches, test ideas, and create additional revenue streams. This approach emphasizes continuous experimentation and learning, enabling rapid adaptation to market feedback.
4.4 Experimentation as a Core Strategy
Experimentation involves conducting controlled, low-cost trials to test ideas, products, or market responses before committing significant resources. Rooted in a scientific approach to innovation, experimentation enables entrepreneurs to gather valuable data and refine their strategies based on real-world feedback.
4.4.1 The Value of Pure Experimentation
Recent research by Jamshidi and Keyhani (2024) highlights that experimentation serves a dual purpose: generating data for strategic learning and increasing the probability of high-impact outcomes. Order statistics theory supports this concept, suggesting that the likelihood of achieving an outlier result increases with the number of trials.
4.4.2 Application to Multipreneurship
4.4.2.1 Incremental and Parallel Testing
Multipreneurs apply experimentation through incremental, low-cost trials across multiple ventures. Each venture acts as an independent experiment, allowing Multipreneurs to track promising projects and discontinue underperforming ones. This aligns with research showing that diversified experimentation mitigates risk while leaving room for unexpected successes.
4.4.2.2 Outlier Potential
By conducting multiple small bets, Multipreneurs increase their chances of achieving extraordinary results. As Jamshidi and Keyhani’s (2024) work suggests, independent trials improve the probability of outliers, even without continuous learning between attempts. Multipreneurs treat each venture as a “throw of the dice,” where some projects yield average results, but a few could deliver substantial returns.
4.4.2.3 Learning and Adaptation
Experimentation in Multipreneurship enables continuous learning, allowing entrepreneurs to use insights from each venture to refine their strategies. As Gans (2023) suggests, strategic experimentation generates valuable data on market conditions, helping entrepreneurs optimize their portfolios, allocate resources effectively, and pivot toward high-potential opportunities.
5. Objectives
5.1 Primary Objective
The primary objective of this study is to develop and validate a theory of Multipreneurship as an effective entrepreneurial strategy for navigating uncertainty. Positioned as an adaptive model, Multipreneurship is designed to achieve resilience and capture outlier successes by diversifying ventures and embracing small, experimental bets rather than high-stakes commitments.
5.2 Specific Objectives
- Examine the Limitations of Traditional Entrepreneurship: Investigate how conventional entrepreneurial models, which often rely on singular, high-stakes ventures, may fall short in managing the complex uncertainties of modern markets. This objective will provide a foundation for understanding why an alternative approach, such as Multipreneurship, is increasingly relevant.
- Analyze Multipreneurship as a Strategic Framework: Define and analyze Multipreneurship as a strategic framework that integrates principles from digital entrepreneurship, portfolio theory, micro-entrepreneurship, and experimentation. This objective seeks to distinguish Multipreneurship from mainstream entrepreneurial approaches, emphasizing how it provides a diversified, low-risk pathway to adaptability and resilience.
- Conduct an Empirical Case Study on Multipreneurship: Conduct a detailed empirical case study to demonstrate how Multipreneurship fosters diversification, mitigates risk, and enables the capture of positive outliers. This objective will provide real-world validation of the Multipreneurship model, illustrating how a portfolio of small, low-cost experiments can lead to exceptional outcomes and long-term entrepreneurial success.
6.Research Design and Methodology
6.1 Research Approach
This study adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining theoretical analysis with empirical case study research to explore and validate the Multipreneurship framework.
6.1.1 Theoretical Analysis
The theoretical component will draw on the foundational theories of uncertainty, diversification, and experimentation, particularly through the works of Taleb on antifragility and Keyhani on Digital Portfolio Micropreneurship. This analysis will synthesize insights from these theories to frame Multipreneurship as a viable strategy for managing uncertainty and achieving outlier success.
6.1.2 Case Study
A case study methodology will be used to empirically investigate the effectiveness of Multipreneurship. This will involve documenting real-world applications of Multipreneurship, either through a personal case study of entrepreneurial experiments or by examining external examples of established multipreneurs.
Personal Case Study: If opting for a personal case study, I will document a series of entrepreneurial experiments, capturing structured observations, performance metrics, and reflections for each venture. This approach allows for in-depth, firsthand insights into the strategies and outcomes associated with Multipreneurship.
External Case Study: If focusing on external examples, the study will involve gathering archival data and conducting interviews with multipreneurs in the indie hacking or digital entrepreneurship communities. This approach will provide broader empirical support, showcasing diverse applications of the Multipreneurship model.
6.2 Data Collection
6.2.1 Personal Case Study
Data will be collected by documenting each entrepreneurial experiment with structured observations and metrics, such as revenue, user engagement, and adaptability. Reflections on each experiment will capture qualitative insights into decision-making and strategic pivots, providing a comprehensive view of how each venture contributes to the broader portfolio.
6.2.2 External Case Study
For external cases, data collection will include gathering archival information on existing multipreneurs and conducting interviews with selected individuals. Interviews will explore their motivations, strategies, and the outcomes of their diversified ventures, focusing on themes of risk management, resilience, and outlier success.
6.3 Data Analysis
6.3.1 Qualitative Analysis
Qualitative data will be analyzed to identify recurring patterns in strategies and outcomes across different experiments. Themes such as diversification, resilience, adaptability, and the pursuit of outliers will be examined to understand how Multipreneurs manage risk and capitalize on randomness. Qualitative insights will help establish Multipreneurship as a flexible and adaptive approach within uncertain markets.
6.3.2 Quantitative Analysis
Quantitative metrics, such as revenue generation and cost-efficiency, will be used to validate the resilience and effectiveness of Multipreneurship as a strategy. By analyzing performance outcomes across multiple ventures, the study aims to empirically demonstrate the benefits of a diversified portfolio and the potential for high-impact successes within a Multipreneurship framework.
7. Timeline and Work Plan
Months 1-6: Paper 1 — The Inherent Uncertainty in Entrepreneurship
- Literature Review: Conduct an in-depth review of foundational theories on uncertainty, randomness, and antifragility, with a focus on Taleb’s contributions as well as supporting theories on risk and decision-making in unpredictable environments.
- Framework Development: Establish a theoretical foundation for the role of uncertainty in entrepreneurship, specifically focusing on how risk management, adaptability, and resilience are integral to entrepreneurial success.
- Writing: Write paper 1, articulating the nature of uncertainty and the limitations of traditional, high-stakes entrepreneurial models.
Months 7-12: Paper 2 — Multipreneurship as a Strategic Response to Uncertainty
- Exploration of Theoretical Foundations: Expand on the theoretical underpinnings of Multipreneurship by examining digital entrepreneurship, portfolio theory, micro-entrepreneurship, and the role of experimentation. Integrate recent research on experimentation and outliers to further define the strategic advantages of a diversified portfolio approach.
- Model Formulation: Develop a conceptual model of Multipreneurship, synthesizing elements from each foundational theory. Outline how Multipreneurship addresses the challenges of uncertainty by balancing risk through multiple low-cost, independent ventures.
- Writing and Refinement: Write paper 2, detailing Multipreneurship as a distinct response to entrepreneurial uncertainty and positioning it within the broader entrepreneurial landscape.
Months 13-21: Paper 3 — Case Study Demonstrating Multipreneurship as a Pathway to Outliers and Strategic Diversification
- Data Collection:
- Personal Case Study (if chosen): Begin documenting a series of entrepreneurial experiments, capturing quantitative metrics and qualitative observations for each venture.
- External Case Study (if chosen): Identify and collect archival data, conduct interviews, and gather performance metrics from established Multipreneurs or relevant examples in the field.
- Data Analysis: Analyze data to identify patterns in risk distribution, adaptability, and outlier success across the portfolio. Examine how diversification and experimentation lead to resilience and strategic insights.
- Writing and Synthesis: Write paper 3, presenting case study findings that empirically support Multipreneurship as a pathway to resilience and outlier success.
Months 22-24: Integration and Finalization
- Comprehensive Review: Review and refine all sections to ensure cohesive flow and alignment with the main research question.
- Conclusion and Practical Implications: Synthesize key findings across all sections, drawing practical implications for entrepreneurs and identifying areas for future research.
- Preparation for Submission: Finalize the full dissertation, proofread, and format for submission.
8. Bibliography
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